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Headlines and futures

2004 May 13
by Skip Sauer

The headline reads “Oil futures gush to new high.” “Crude oil and gasoline futures rose in New York to the highest end-of-session levels in two decades,” notes the NY Times.

Are gloom and doom lurking around the corner? No. What the papers don’t find terribly interesting are futures prices in the true sense of the word – prices beyond next month. These prices suggest the current spike is temporary. Prices are projected to fall by $3 through the end of the year, and another $9 over the next decade.

Here are the current prices in the futures market from the WSJ for the December contract through 2010, from the WSJ ($).

Jun ’04 $40.79

Dec ’04 $37.49

Dec ’05 $33.29

Dec ’06 $31.12

Dec ’07 $29.92

Dec ’08 $29.07

Dec ’09 $28.42

Dec ’10 $28.27

More information which punctures the gloom and doom mythology is catalogued at Knowledge Problem. I particularly recommend this excerpt of Robert McTeer’s recent op-ed in the WSJ, which led me to check out the data.

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