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My Limitations as a Forecaster

2009 October 6
by Brad Humphreys

I am a terrible forecaster. I used to teach a class on economic forecasting. After teaching the class several times, my forecasting limitations were painfully revealed each semester. Just last week I told a reporter that I thought Chicago would get the 2016 Olympic Games.

In early August, when discussing the Michael Crabtree holdout here on TSE, I wrote “ I expect that Crabtree will eventually sign a contract worth less than Heyward-Bey’s before the start of the season.” Crabtree is still holding out, again demonstrating my limitations as a forecaster, even though his contract will almost certainly be worth less than the one signed by Heyward-Bey. Of course the holdout also demonstrates Crabtree’s limitations as a rational economic decision maker, but that’s his failing, not mine. Anyway, a recent media report claims that Crabtree is now ready to resume negotiations because he is “getting bored just watching games this season.” No word about whether he is “getting tired of not drawing a paycheck” or “worried about how far he might fall in the 2010 draft if he sits out the entire season.”

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