People who have the potential to be high level officials dont bother to realize their talents and instead apply them elsewhere.

If something was done to improve the compensation for refereeing, such as making the NFL refs full time employees we might see a change in that situation. How about smaller leagues making a whoelsale change to eliminate trash talking to the refs? It wouldnt take long to change the culture if every parent who yelled at a ref in a little league game was banned from the field for the rest of a season!

I know exactly what you mean about reffing, too. My son plays in church-league basketball games. He’s 15. Now, it is a pretty good church league; plenty of players in it have gone on to have an impact in their high schools, and high school basketball in Northern California is played at a very high level.

Even in the church league, the pressure on the refs is very high. These kids are amazingly strong and tough, and I’ve never been to a game where there aren’t at least 3-4 parents who know more than the refs. They talk loudly and yell most of the game. I don’t know why the refs don’t toss some of the parents. And I swear I’m not exaggerating.

The pressure has to be 10 times greater in high school games; then 10 times higher in college; then 10 times higher in major college games; then another 10 times harder in the pros.

I have nothing but respect for good rec-league refs. To say that “millions” of people could step in with relatively little notice is completely wrong.

“We’re gonna be talking about this for a long time.”

It is true that football already has competition from baseball and basketball. However, both of those sports still conspire to limit a players ultimate earnings over the course of a career. Basketball requires players to go through an unpaid internship (college).

In theory, baseball offers a direct route to riches right of high school, but it also offers fewer career opportunities over the course of careers since a player is only valuable if he is prospect for a major league team. There is no such thing as a 32 year old baseball player who has no major league potential but still plays because he can do a solid job in AAA. In soccer, since the minor leagues are competitive and are not simply feeders to big clubs in the top leagues, a player can in theory extend his career over a longer period of time even if he isn’t at the top level.

Moreover, I would argue that football and baseball have very limited growth prospects overseas, and that will limit their ability to match soccer (and basketball) when these sports start to leverage the financial might that comes with being more popular throughout the world.

As for the 300 pound lineman- yes, he will always play football. But the skill positions – quarterback, running back, wide receiver, cornerbacks, safeties…these guys can play soccer or other sports.

Nate, I love soccer and played it through high school. Although I think it will make further head roads in America, I’m not sure it will significantly sap NFL talent. For one, competition already exists from sports that are safe and pay better – baseball and basketball both fit those criteria. I’m also not sure that many of the players that are NFL players (300 lb linemen for example) are prospective soccer stars.

I do think football is going to have some issues from the brain and long-term injury front. I’m not sure that will initially be from lack of playing talent, but probably from legal liability. Look how the NFL has had to respond to bounty gate – what would there liability be if the knowingly allowed players to intentionally injury other players. Likewise, there liability for allowing plays that knowingly causing certain times of brain injuries could be large as well. I wonder if this will effect college and high school football before the NFL though and dry up some talent that way.

Steve

An aside: the key word in Steve Young’s quote is the word “now.” The NFL is certainly not an inelastic good in the long-term. 10-15 years from now, when Manchester United and Real Madrid are running youth soccer training programs in Texas, Florida, and Southern California that pick off the standout athletes by offering a much bigger payout up front for a longer athletic career that doesn’t leave them with potentially debilitating brain damage, then the NFL might look on the short-term reliance on its inelasticity as a mistake.