http://thesportseconomist.com/2013/01/21/optimizing-isnt-easy-even-for-belichick/ __economic thinking about sports__ Wed, 22 May 2013 23:47:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 http://thesportseconomist.com/2013/01/21/optimizing-isnt-easy-even-for-belichick/comment-page-1/#comment-3503 Michael C Thu, 24 Jan 2013 19:15:22 +0000 http://thesportseconomist.com/?p=4436#comment-3503 Advanced NFL Stats is the Gold Standard for mathematical thinking about football. During any NFL game, you can see a live graph of the game state and the current win probabilities that you mention.
http://live.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=2013012000
From that punt play onward (Where NE held a 75% chance of winning up 13-6), the WPA graph is all Ravens. Sure, this is a coincidence, but the Belichick of Legend is renown for tough 4th down calls, and passing on this opportunity was the last time they got near the Ravens’ endzone.

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