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Darts and long term contracts in baseball

From David Andriesen in the Seattle PI:

Many of the contract battles this winter will be as much about length of term as money. A key reason is that insurance companies have ceased covering contracts exceeding three years. Call it the Albert Belle Effect -- insurance and the Orioles got stuck for $39 million when a hip injury forced him to retire.

"The ability to predict a player's performance for one year is difficult," DePodesta told the Los Angeles Times. "Two to three years out is more difficult. Beyond that, you are throwing darts."

I'm waiting for the response from Scott Boras.