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Derby analysis at the Courier-Journal

The pace scenario. Lion Heart from post #3, and Quintons Gold Rush from post #20 have no choice: they must gun it from the get-go. It will be very busy behind them, with Read the Footnotes and Pollard's Vision prominent. Too busy for any of these to last, I believe. Lion Heart has a chance to steal it on the front end, but the pace-pressers will not let that happen.

Given a choice between intelligence and temperament, trainers want temperament in a horse. Apparently Smarty Jones has it. If so, it will be a big asset in the midst of a very competitive race. When the dust settles, I look for a stretch battle between the favorites: Smarty will be joined by the stretch-runners Tapit and The Cliffs Edge.

Don't put a high probability on that scenario though. In this year's Derby, most of the horses have shown exceptional ability, but not consistently (save the three just mentioned). And the horses are trained by people who know what they are doing. So its not a bad year to take a chance on the skills of a Frankel or a Mandella at long odds. And what to make of Castledale, the Santa Anita Derby winner who is 15-1 in the morning line? I'm confused. But never mind. There's plenty of time left to sort out the puzzle. Happy Derby!