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"Predicting No-Hitters"

Great post by JC Bradbury at Sabermetrics. JC takes Bill James' nifty but simple approach to the problem, applies an appropriate touch of econometric sophistication, and solves the riddle. The second table also suggests an answer to the following: why does John Smoltz keep pressing the Braves for a return to the starting rotation? (Assuming Clemens is retired, Smoltz would place third on the active list).