Every year, March Madness delivers shocking first-round upsets that send brackets into chaos. While top-ranked teams often seem like safe bets, the unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament means that even the most dominant teams can and will struggle under pressure.
For bracket builders looking for a high-risk, high-reward strategy, picking the March Madness first round upset predictions can put you ahead of the competition. This year, four high-seeded teams—UConn, UNC, Illinois, and Marquette—have the potential to tank early despite their strong regular-season performances. Let’s break down why each of these teams is vulnerable, which players have the most to prove, and how their past tournament history factors into their chances.
UConn Huskies: The Title Defense Pressure Could Crack Them
Key Players to Watch
- Tristen Newton (Guard, Senior) – The team’s most experienced playmaker, Newton is UConn’s floor general. If he has an off game, their offense could stall.
- Donovan Clingan (Center, Sophomore) – A dominant shot-blocker, but if he gets into early foul trouble, UConn’s interior defense weakens significantly.
- Cam Spencer (Guard, Senior) – A three-point sniper, but streaky shooting could be a problem under tournament pressure.
Why UConn Could Get Upset
UConn is coming off a national championship run, but repeating is one of the hardest things to do in college basketball. The Big East was weaker than usual this year, meaning the Huskies may not be fully battle-tested against top-tier competition.
Additionally, defending champions rarely make deep tournament runs the following year, and with the weight of expectations on their shoulders, UConn could be vulnerable to a lower-seeded team hungry for a statement win.
NBA Prospects & Players with Something to Prove
- Donovan Clingan is projected as a lottery pick, but a bad tournament showing could hurt his draft stock.
- Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer are trying to prove they belong in the NBA conversation and will be under pressure to perform.
UConn’s Recent March Madness Performances
- 2024: National Champions
- 2023: First-round exit (major disappointment)
- 2022: Lost in the second round
Verdict: If you pick against UConn early and they lose, your bracket will gain a huge advantage over those who trust the defending champs.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Living and Dying by Their Star Players
Key Players to Watch
- RJ Davis (Guard, Senior) – the heart and soul of UNC’s offense, but if he struggles, UNC has no real backup plan.
- Armando Bacot (Forward, Graduate Senior) – A force inside, but can he handle physicality without foul trouble?
- Harrison Ingram (Forward, Junior) – A great defender, but inconsistent shooting could hurt UNC in close games.
Why UNC Could Get Upset
UNC has one of the worst Quad 1 records among top-seeded teams, meaning they struggled against elite opponents all season. Their tournament success heavily depends on RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, and if one of them has an off night, UNC could be in serious trouble.
NBA Prospects & Players with Something to Prove
- Armando Bacot is playing his final season and would love to go out with a deep run.
- RJ Davis is an NBA fringe player who could boost his stock with a big tournament.
UNC’s Recent March Madness Performances
- 2024: Missed the tournament completely (disaster for a blue-blood program)
- 2023: Lost in the second round
- 2022: National Championship runner-up
Verdict: UNC has been highly inconsistent in March. If they get a tough first-round matchup, they could crash out early.
Illinois Fighting Illini: Hot and Cold Team That Could Be A March Madness First Round Upset
Key Players to Watch
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (Guard, Senior) – Illinois’ best scorer, but he sometimes takes too many low-percentage shots.
- Coleman Hawkins (Forward, Senior) – A versatile big man, but his inconsistency can hurt Illinois.
- Marcus Domask (Guard, Graduate Senior) – A solid playmaker, but struggles against elite defenses.
Why Illinois Could Get Upset
Illinois has one of the most unpredictable teams in the field. They play fast and aggressive, but that also means they turn the ball over at a high rate. Against an experienced, disciplined mid-major team, Illinois could struggle to control the pace.
NBA Prospects & Players with Something to Prove
- Terrence Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins are both on NBA draft boards, but neither is a lock for the first round. A bad tournament could cost them millions.
Illinois’ Recent March Madness Performances
- 2024: First-round exit
- 2023: Second-round exit
- 2022: First-round exit
Verdict: Illinois has consistently disappointed in March Madness. If you bet against them early, history is on your side.
Marquette Golden Eagles: The Dark Horse That Could Collapse
Key Players to Watch
- Tyler Kolek (Guard, Senior) – One of the best passers in the country, but if he’s shut down, Marquette’s offense struggles.
- Oso Ighodaro (Forward, Senior) – A strong interior presence, but his free throw shooting is a liability.
- David Joplin (Forward, Junior) – A streaky scorer who can be great or invisible on any given night.
Why Marquette Could Get Upset
Marquette has been one of the most exciting teams this season, but they have also struggled against elite defensive teams. If their high-paced offense gets slowed down, they could be in trouble.
NBA Prospects & Players with Something to Prove
- Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro both have NBA aspirations, but they need a deep tournament run to solidify their stock.
Marquette’s Recent March Madness Performances
- 2024: Lost in the second round
- 2023: First-round exit
- 2022: First-round exit
Verdict: Marquette is historically shaky in March. If they draw a strong defensive team in the first round, expect another early exit.
When Does March Madness Start?
- Selection Sunday: March 16, 2025 – The full bracket is revealed
- First Four: March 18-19, 2025 – The play-in games begin
- First Round: March 20-21, 2025
- Locations for First Round: Games will be played in Dayton, Omaha, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Memphis, and Spokane
Which Upset Will Bust the Most Brackets?
Each of these four teams has major flaws that could lead to an early exit. If you take the risk of picking a first-round upset and it hits, you’ll be miles ahead of the competition in your bracket pool.
Whether it’s UConn struggling under the pressure of repeating, UNC relying too much on two players, Illinois continuing its March curse, or Marquette’s offense getting shut down, at least one of these teams will likely fall early.
March Madness is unpredictable, but knowing which teams are vulnerable gives you the best chance to get ahead and make a deep bracket run.
