NFL underdog teams are already reshaping the 2025 story by Week 6. The early pace-setters look familiar in spots; the Eagles, 49ers, and Lions are all 4–1 in the NFC, while the Bills, Jaguars, and Colts have matched that start in the AFC, with the Steelers right there as well. On the flip side, a few name brands need to steady quickly: the Chiefs have stumbled out at 2–3, the Dolphins and Ravens sit 1–4, and the Jets are still searching for a first win.
That split is exactly where surprise runs come from. Teams hovering around .500, the Commanders, Seahawks, Rams, Chargers, Broncos, Patriots, and Vikings have the schedule space and personnel to flip a couple of close games and crash the playoff picture. In this piece, we’ll spotlight the most believable sleepers, why they’re set up for a second-quarter surge, and how recent drafts, coaching moves, injuries, and evolving odds all factor into which underdogs can actually bite.
History’s Lessons: Legendary NFL Underdog Teams
The NFL is filled with inspirational stories of teams once labeled underdogs who overcame expectations and became iconic.
- 1999 St. Louis Rams (The Greatest Show on Turf): Initially, no one anticipated greatness from these NFL underdog teams. However, quarterback Kurt Warner, a former grocery store clerk, led the Rams to a stunning Super Bowl victory, proving that perseverance and teamwork often outperform traditional odds.
- 2007 New York Giants: Arguably one of the greatest NFL underdog teams, Eli Manning and the Giants ended the New England Patriots’ undefeated season in Super Bowl XLII, cementing their status as legendary underdogs.
- 2017 Philadelphia Eagles: With backup quarterback Nick Foles at the helm, the Eagles surprised everyone by winning Super Bowl LII against Tom Brady’s Patriots.
These stories highlight how overlooked teams can rapidly ascend to greatness, setting a blueprint for the 2025 NFL season’s potential underdogs.
Five NFL underdog teams you should keep circling
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why are they dangerous right now
Tampa Bay is winning on the margins. The defense gets off the field in the red zone, the offense avoids back-breaking turnovers, and special teams quietly tilts field position. The passing game is not volume heavy, yet it has enough explosive plays to punish single coverage. When they play with a lead, the pass rush wakes up and the game script fits exactly what the staff wants.
What must improve to stay in it
Sustained drives. Third-down consistency has to rise or the defense will carry too much of the load by December. The run game does not need to dominate, but it must be efficient on early downs to set up manageable thirds. Penalties have also wiped out a few chunk gains. That discipline piece matters most against better secondaries.
Schedule snapshot
They still have a heavy division slate in front of them. If they split those and avoid stumbles against teams with losing records, the path to January remains open.
Prediction
Ceiling: win the South with 10 to 11 victories.
Floor: nine wins and a wild-card chase that comes down to tiebreakers.
Most likely: a playoff berth if turnover margin finishes in the black and red-zone touchdown rate stays near league average or better.
Indianapolis Colts
Why are they dangerous right now
The Colts play a balanced, physically honest style. The offensive line is healthier than in past seasons, which lets them run on schedule and protect in obvious passing situations. The front seven creates pressure without constant blitzing, which keeps explosive plays down. They are also a strong second-half team, which hints at good in-game adjustments.
What must be improved to make a real jump?
Explosive pass plays against top defenses. Indianapolis moves the ball, but the offense can go quiet when chunk gains dry up. A small uptick in play action and shot plays on first down would change how opponents call coverages on money downs. Red-zone creativity is another lever that can raise points per drive.
Schedule snapshot
There are two swing stretches left. One is a pair of road games against physical teams. The other is a three-game run heavy on division opponents. Go three and two in those five and the rest of the slate becomes very manageable.
Prediction
Ceiling: 11 wins and a home playoff game.
Floor: nine wins with tiebreakers deciding a wild card.
Most likely: 10 wins and a postseason spot if the pass rush stays healthy and the offense keeps turnovers under control.
Washington Commanders
Why are they dangerous right now?
Quietly efficient defense. Washington is tough against the run and creates negative plays that put offenses behind the chains. The offense has cleaned up protection and is leaning into the quick game with calculated deep shots. When they get a short field, they cash in with three at worst, which is exactly how underdogs build upset wins.
What must be improved to be taken seriously?
Third-and-medium. Washington stalls there more than it should. Better early down sequencing will help, but so will a reliable middle-field target on option routes. Defensively, explosive passes allowed have to come down against teams that flood the seams. If they tighten that, their scoring defense will look even better.
Schedule snapshot
They face multiple playoff-level quarterbacks down the stretch. If the secondary holds up and the rush stays fresh in fourth quarters, they can split those matchups and keep wild-card hopes alive deep into January.
Prediction
Ceiling: 10 wins and a wild card.
Floor: eight wins with meaningful football into Week 18.
Most likely: nine wins with tiebreakers in play if the defense keeps opponents under a 40 percent third-down rate.
Los Angeles Rams
Why are they dangerous right now
The Rams create answers on offense. Formations, tempo, and motion force defenses to declare their intentions, and the quarterback’s play has been decisive. Young pieces on defense are flying around, and while they bend at times, they rally to the football and steal possessions with timely pressures. This team is built to trade scores with anyone.
What must improve to make noise in January?
Pass protection in known passing situations. When the Rams fall behind the sticks, heat gets home. They can mask it with tempo and quick game, but the long season demands better answers in a straight dropback. Defensively, tackling after the catch needs to remain sharp since they invite throws underneath.
Schedule snapshot
There is a tricky midseason cluster against physical fronts. Get out of that run at .500 or better and the back third of the schedule offers chances to stack wins.
Prediction
Ceiling: 11 wins with wild card seeding no one wants to face.
Floor: eight wins if injuries hit the offensive line.
Most likely: 10 wins if they finish top ten in early down success on offense and keep explosives allowed under control.
Los Angeles Chargers
Why are they dangerous right now
Few teams can match their top gear. The Chargers can score in three plays, then turn around and create havoc with speed on defense. When they protect a lead, the pass rush and secondary disguise well enough to force mistakes. They also have a kicker and coverage units that travel, which matters in one-score games.
What must improve to convert potential into wins
Late-game management. The ingredients are there, but four four-minute offense and two-minute defense must be cleaner. The run game does not need volume, yet it must salt away leads with a few first downs. Defensively, communication on deep crossers is the one area that still gives them trouble in crunch time.
Schedule snapshot
The division is not as settled as usual, so head-to-head games will define their ceiling. Hold serve at home and split on the road, and they will control their fate in December.
Prediction
Ceiling: win the West with 11 to 12 victories.
Floor: nine wins and a wild card chase that hinges on divisional tiebreakers.
Most likely: 10 wins if late-game efficiency improves and turnover margin lands on the plus side
Winners and Losers of the Recent NFL Draft
The recent NFL Draft has notably impacted various NFL underdog teams. Let’s break down key winners and losers and how these decisions may affect their futures:
Winners
- Detroit Lions: Securing top prospects on both sides of the ball makes them clear draft winners, providing immediate talent to transform their roster.
- Chicago Bears: Their strategic moves to enhance offensive firepower and defensive depth place them favorably among the league’s rising stars.
- Houston Texans: Adding foundational pieces significantly boosts their competitiveness.
Losers
- Arizona Cardinals: Missed opportunities to address critical roster gaps leave the Cardinals lagging behind contenders.
- Las Vegas Raiders: Questionable draft selections and ignoring key positional needs potentially derail their chances in the coming season.
The draft has proven pivotal for NFL underdog teams aspiring for breakout performances, shaping their immediate and future trajectories significantly.
What Do the Sportsbooks Say? NFL Super Bowl Odds in 2025
Online sportsbooks have provided intriguing insights into this season’s potential. NFL underdog teams often offer the most exciting betting opportunities due to favorable odds:
- The Detroit Lions currently hold appealing odds, signaling increased optimism among analysts. Early lines suggest bookmakers expect significant improvement.
- The Carolina Panthers, despite being overlooked historically, have seen odds shift positively, reflecting growing confidence from bettors.
- The Houston Texans remain long shots, yet savvy bettors recognize their potential upside, providing significant returns on modest investments.
Sportsbooks indicate a changing perception of several NFL underdog teams, showcasing shifting sentiments around their potential successes. Bettors looking for high-value opportunities should closely track these movements leading into the season.
Coaching Changes and Their Impact on NFL Underdog Teams
Coaching changes often reshape NFL underdog teams’ fortunes dramatically. In 2025, several coaching shifts may unlock hidden potential:
- The Texans’ appointment of DeMeco Ryans brought discipline and renewed defensive identity, critical in turning the franchise around.
- The Lions’ consistent coaching and enhanced support staff offer stability, aiding player development and fostering winning habits.
- The Panthers’ hiring of an innovative offensive coordinator could spark explosive offensive improvements.
These coaching changes highlight the importance of leadership in transforming NFL underdog teams into legitimate contenders.
Key Injuries and Recoveries to Watch
Injuries often derail promising seasons, particularly for NFL underdog teams lacking depth. However, recovery from significant injuries can also spark unexpected improvements:
- Detroit’s recovery of running back Jahmyr Gibbs from last year’s ACL injury provides a major offensive boost, potentially pushing them into playoff contention.
- Chicago’s healthy defensive core returning from injuries could revitalize their once-feared defense, improving their odds significantly.
Monitoring injury recoveries closely provides valuable insights into these NFL underdog teams’ realistic chances in 2025.
Why You Can’t Afford to Ignore These NFL Underdog Teams
Every year, certain teams defy expectations, rewarding the fans and bettors who believed in them early. As we approach the 2025 NFL season, these five teams—the Lions, Panthers, Texans, Bears, and Commanders—stand out as legitimate contenders capable of surprising the football world.
By examining historical successes, draft impacts, sportsbook odds, coaching changes, and key player recoveries, we see clearly why these NFL underdog teams deserve attention. Don’t underestimate them—they could very well become this season’s sleeping giants.
