How to Win in the World of Chance

We genuinely live in a world of chance. Now, this is present in all aspects of our lives. It is seen in the ovarian lottery to those who are born to rich people and in those who are not. We can notice this with those who have strong skill sets and knowledge in one area, while others can complement them in another place.

All of it has a bit to do with the notion of chance, and everyone aims to increase the chances of winning by taking the right steps and making the right decisions.

Now, of course, this is much easier said than done.

So, the question you must ask yourself as you proceed and move forward in life is how to bet in this topsy turvy world of chance?

It is a fair question to ask when you understand the world we live in today. Recall that this does not merely apply to games of chance from poker to betting on your favorite sports team, cryptocurrency, or company to head in the direction that you wish it to move.

Nay, it also applies to all aspects of our lives and how we choose to move forward.

I will look at how we can look at life like looking at the cards in a poker game or the dice in a simple dice game. Let’s take a look at how we can beat the proverbial house in this game of life that is seemingly ruled by chance.

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The Curious Art of Decision Making in Games of Chance

The fact is that each of us understands that from games like poker to the ultimate game of life we must abide by a certain set of rules to continue to survive and thrive. If we do not adhere to these rules, it may be hard to advance.

If we were to look at these rules, it is not necessarily about the surface-level social rules or the clearly written rules present within the poker game. No, it is more about the mathematical underpinnings of every aspect of life.

The problem with these games and any betting is that your inputs of information must be in line with what is genuinely present in reality. If you have the wrong inputs, you are that much further away from the truth and typically a great distance apart from winning at that particular game.

For instance, in poker, while it is a game of chance, skill is certainly involved in the process. You must pay close attention to the cards that are within your hands, that is on the table, and then guess the cards within your competitors’ hands while also betting on the cards that may come on the river and the flop.

If you guess your inputs accurately, you can make the best decision of whether to fold, hold, or raise. As you fine-tune your decision-making and are in line with the game, the more you are likely to win and succeed.

The frustrating part and the exciting part of life is that it is hard to know if you are one hundred percent right in your decision-making. You must make sure that you continue to improve your decision-making by reading the situation better and improving your mindset.

Yes, each day in life is a fantastic gamble; each decision we choose each day comes with the sacrifice of not taking the other choice. We make a specific choice because we seek to enhance the quality of our lives by obtaining the proper rewards with our time, actions, and money.

On Linear and Exponential Outcomes

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We want the most bang for our buck, but we play in games of chance because we don’t want linear outcomes. To be clear, linear outcomes are when you do x and expect y.

For example, as a youth or even a grown adult, you may solicit different people within neighborhoods and expect to mow a few lawns and gain a couple of long-term clients.

The thinking in this process is that if you invest your time and a little bit of money by soliciting people within a neighborhood or two, you may pick up a few clients you can work with for the long term.

If you do a good job each time and please your landscaping clients, they will provide you with a fixed dollar amount ($25-$45) per project for a certain set of landscaping tasks.

You trade your time and labor for money. The more clients you gain and the more work you take on, the more money you make. It is a linear game to a certain extent, as picking up clients depends on a tad bit on chance. When seeking landscaping clients, the clients are not 100% guaranteed, but it turns into a linear game once they are secured.

As the client seeker or a company like Apple in creating new products, you are gambling a little bit and expecting to put in a little bit of effort for linear outcomes at first.

You do so because you think that this game is the best process for you to take on.

But the question you must ask yourself is, are you playing linear games or exponential games where a little bit of input every single time you play the game can help you obtain a massive return?

In this situation, you must ask, what kind of games are you playing in, and you are gaining the right results? If not, maybe, you should switch the game. This is true for betting on sports and other games as well as it is for life.

You win in a world of change by shifting your mindset to optimize for the best chances and not merely playing defense on every move.

How are you betting?

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Author: Ben Burd

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Sports Economics