The NFL season is moving fast, and by the time Week 4 rolls around, teams are starting to reveal who they really are. Week 3 brought plenty of drama: Carolina’s defense pitched a shocking shutout against Atlanta, the Eagles stormed back from a 19-point deficit to stun the Rams, and Minnesota rolled to a 48-point statement win overseas. We also witnessed heartbreaking losses, such as the Jets’ near-upset of Tampa Bay and the Cardinals falling short against San Francisco despite holding a late lead. Injuries piled up, too, with stars like CeeDee Lamb, James Conner, and Najee Harris all leaving games early, reshaping how bettors will approach the upcoming slate.
All of that sets the stage for a pivotal Week 4, where oddsmakers are tightening the screws and early-season trends start to carry real weight. Surprise teams are trying to prove they’re not flukes, contenders are adjusting to roster setbacks, and underdogs are hunting for statement wins. Bettors know this is when lines move fast, and finding value requires both sharp instincts and a close read on momentum.
This guide to NFL Week 4 odds breaks down the opening lines, spreads, totals, moneylines, key injuries, and betting trends you need to know before making your picks. Whether you’re targeting one marquee matchup or scanning every game for hidden value, understanding how the market is shifting can give you a major edge heading into Sunday.
Why NFL Week 4 Odds Matter
Week 4 is a crucial point in the season. By now, sportsbooks have enough data from three full weeks to tighten their models, but fans and bettors still see volatility in team performances. A team that looks unstoppable in September can come back to Earth quickly, while a 0-3 squad might be undervalued if they’ve had bad luck or tough opponents.
The NFL Week 4 odds are often where the gap between public perception and true team strength becomes widest. That’s why sharp bettors pay close attention to early line movement and how injuries shift the market.
Opening Lines for NFL Week 4
Oddsmakers release opening lines on Sunday night or Monday morning after the previous week’s games conclude. These numbers are shaped by power ratings, analytics models, and home-field adjustments.
Here’s what bettors look at in the NFL Week 4 odds opening lines:
- Point Spreads: Show which team is favored and by how much.
- Moneylines: Indicate the outright winner odds.
- Totals (Over/Under): Predict combined points scored.
For example:
- A game may open with the Eagles as -3.0 favorites over the Buccaneers with a total of 45.5.
- If early money comes in heavily on Philadelphia, the line might move to -4.5 by midweek.
Tracking these shifts is one of the most important parts of analyzing Week 4 games.
Key Injuries Impacting NFL Week 4 Odds
Another Sunday, another round of game-changing injuries across the league. As teams prepare for Week 4, several playoff contenders and betting favorites are already reshaping their game plans due to high-profile losses. These developments aren’t just big for coaches and fantasy players—they’re critical for bettors analyzing the NFL Week 4 odds.
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, WR, ankle)
Dallas wideout CeeDee Lamb left the Bears game with an ankle injury and tried to return for one snap before hobbling off again. While Lamb insists he can suit up in Week 4, history tells us players are often overly optimistic about timelines. If Lamb sits, Dak Prescott will lean heavily on George Pickens, Jalen Tolbert, and especially tight end Jake Ferguson, who saw 14 targets in Week 3. Bettors should monitor Lamb’s status closely—his availability could swing the spread by a point or more.
James Conner (Cardinals, RB, ankle)
Arizona’s offense took a major hit when James Conner was carted off with what ESPN confirmed is a season-ending ankle injury. Rookie Trey Benson is expected to step into the RB1 role after showing flashes against San Francisco. The loss of Conner, however, makes Arizona far more predictable offensively, which could pressure sportsbooks to adjust the NFL Week 4 odds against them.
Najee Harris (Chargers, RB, Achilles)
Los Angeles suffered one of the worst possible injuries when Najee Harris went down with a non-contact Achilles tear. His season is over, and first-round rookie Omarion Hampton now becomes the featured back. While Hampton is talented, losing a veteran like Harris changes the Chargers’ offensive balance, and oddsmakers have already nudged totals lower for their Week 4 matchup.
Mike Evans (Buccaneers, WR, hamstring)
Mike Evans left Sunday’s game early with a hamstring tweak and was ruled out immediately. Coach Todd Bowles tried to downplay the issue, but Evans’ history with hamstring problems raises red flags. If he misses Week 4, rookie Emeka Egbuka may be thrust into a larger role while Chris Godwin works his way back from an ankle injury. Bettors should note that Evans’ absence often leads to more conservative play calling, which could impact both spread and totals in the NFL Week 4 odds.
Nick Bosa (49ers, DE, knee)
San Francisco briefly held its breath when Nick Bosa exited against Arizona with a knee injury. Fortunately, tests ruled out an ACL tear, but his status for Week 4 remains uncertain. Even if he plays, Bosa may be limited. For bettors, this matters more than it might seem—Bosa’s presence directly affects opposing quarterbacks’ efficiency, which in turn impacts totals and point spreads.
Terry McLaurin (Commanders, WR, quad)
McLaurin left Sunday’s win with a quad injury after hauling in a 54-yard catch. While he was listed as questionable, Washington’s commanding lead likely factored into the decision to hold him out. If he’s limited in Week 4, the Commanders’ passing attack could lean more heavily on Marcus Mariota’s legs and short-yardage passing. For spread bettors, this makes Washington less appealing as a road favorite.
Lane Johnson (Eagles, RT, neck)
Philadelphia lost its anchor on the offensive line when Lane Johnson left after just one possession with a stinger. The offense sputtered before rallying, but Johnson’s health is crucial to protecting Jalen Hurts. If he sits, Tampa Bay’s pass rush gains a major edge, and the line in the NFL Week 4 odds could swing in the Buccaneers’ favor.
Betting Trends to Watch in Week 4
Trends can’t replace analysis, but they add context to the NFL Week 4 odds. Some trends hold up year after year, especially around specific matchups or coaching tendencies.
- Teams ATS (Against the Spread): Some squads consistently outperform or underperform expectations.
- Totals Movement: If a total opens at 47.5 and quickly climbs to 49.5, sharp bettors are signaling confidence in a high-scoring game.
- Road Favorites vs. Home Dogs: Public money usually flows toward road favorites, but historically, home underdogs have offered strong value in certain situations.
Looking back at the past few seasons, Week 4 often features surprises, as teams are still settling in and oddsmakers adjust to new realities.
Game-By-Game Breakdown of NFL Week 4 Odds
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Total: 43.5
The Seahawks have owned this rivalry recently with a seven-game winning streak, but Arizona’s defense has improved and Kyler Murray is keeping games alive with both his arm and legs. Seattle’s +41 point differential is the best in the division, but the Cardinals are scrappy and rarely get blown out at home. Bettors should watch for line movement if Trey Benson settles in quickly as the new RB1 replacing James Conner.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin, Ireland)
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Total: 40.5
London and Dublin games bring unique betting quirks—neutral fields often create sluggish first halves and lower-scoring games. Minnesota comes in riding momentum after a 48-point offensive explosion, while Pittsburgh relies on defense and turnovers to hang around. With Aaron Rodgers playing steady ball for the Steelers, this spread may shrink closer to a pick’em. Unders have historically done well in these international games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Eagles -3.0
Total: 45.5
The Eagles stormed back from a 19-point deficit last week, while Tampa Bay needed late heroics to top the Jets. Philadelphia is the public darling here, but bettors shouldn’t ignore Tampa’s 6-1 record in the last seven head-to-head matchups. Mike Evans’ hamstring status is critical—without him, the Bucs’ offense loses its vertical threat, and that could push the total under.
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -16.5
Total: 48.5
This is one of the largest spreads of the week. New Orleans has a -43 point differential, while Buffalo is cruising at 3-0 with Josh Allen playing efficient, turnover-free football. Bettors may hesitate laying more than two touchdowns this early in the season, especially given Buffalo’s occasional tendency to play down to competition. Keep an eye on whether the total rises if oddsmakers expect a Bills blowout script.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -8.5
Total: 45.5
Cleveland’s defense continues to keep them competitive, holding opponents under 20 points in two of three games. Detroit has been dominant at home, but with a spread this high, sharp bettors will look for value if the number drifts closer to +10. Jared Goff’s efficiency at home makes Detroit tough to fade, but Cleveland’s run defense could slow things down.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -7.0
Total: 38.5
Houston is 0-3 despite a stout defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in three weeks. The problem? CJ Stroud and the offense have been completely stagnant. Tennessee, meanwhile, is allowing too many explosive plays. This game projects low-scoring, and totals under 40 often attract heavy under money. The Texans are due for regression defensively, but can the Titans exploit it?
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
Spread: Chargers -5.5
Total: 44.5
Justin Herbert is keeping Los Angeles rolling with big numbers and efficiency, but the loss of Najee Harris changes the offensive balance. Rookie Omarion Hampton will get his first feature workload. For the Giants, Marcus Mariota’s mobility was a surprise in relief last week. This spread could shrink if bettors doubt the Chargers’ run game without Harris.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Commanders -2.5
Total: 45.5
Washington has won the last four in this series, but injuries to Terry McLaurin and multiple defensive backs could play a huge role. Atlanta’s offense was blanked last week, and they may stick with Kirk Cousins over Michael Penix at quarterback. This line may move based on McLaurin’s availability, making it one of the most volatile spreads on the board.
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -5.5
Total: 43.5
The Panthers finally got a win with a 30-0 shutout of Atlanta, while New England continues to be turnover-prone. Rookie Drake Maye has shown poise, but ball security is an issue across the Patriots’ backfield. If Carolina’s defense travels well, this could be closer than expected. Bettors may want to watch if the spread falls under five by Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -3.5
Total: 48.5
Both teams are exceeding expectations early. The Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor, who currently leads the league in rushing. The Rams blew a huge lead to Philadelphia in Week 3, exposing their defense. This game may be one of the most balanced matchups of the week, with early action likely pushing the total higher as both teams have shown offensive explosiveness.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Total: 46.5
The Jaguars haven’t beaten San Francisco since 2005, and Trevor Lawrence’s 6.0 yards per attempt average won’t cut it against a defense anchored by Nick Bosa—if he plays. San Francisco keeps finding ways to win close games, which makes them dangerous even if Bosa is limited. This spread may climb toward -4.5 if injury reports look good for the Niners.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -3.0
Total: 48.5
This rematch of last year’s opener has fireworks written all over it. Patrick Mahomes is running more this season, adding an extra layer of unpredictability. Baltimore comes in off a short week after playing Monday night, which could tilt fatigue in Kansas City’s favor. Bettors love the Chiefs in Arrowhead, but Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability makes the underdog live here.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -1.5
Total: 47.5
The Bears found offensive rhythm behind Caleb Williams in Week 3, while the Raiders dropped their second straight. Rookie Luther Burden and Rome Odunze are giving Chicago a legitimate vertical attack, which could push this total upward. Bettors may see value in the Bears as short underdogs if the line flips to even.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 47.5
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas in a revenge game against his former team. Green Bay’s Jordan Love is spreading the ball around with efficiency, while Dallas is dealing with multiple defensive injuries, including Trevon Diggs and Kenny Clark. If Lamb can’t go, Dallas’ offense could sputter, making Green Bay appealing with nearly a touchdown cushion.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Monday Night Football, Game 1)
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
Total: 44.5
Miami is coming off a loss to Buffalo, while the Jets nearly upset Tampa Bay with Tyrod Taylor under center. Garrett Wilson is thriving, but the Jets’ offensive ceiling remains capped. The Dolphins’ speed should overwhelm New York’s secondary, especially if Sauce Gardner isn’t cleared from concussion protocol. This line could balloon past -3 if Gardner is ruled out.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (Monday Night Football, Game 2)
Spread: Broncos -7.5
Total: 43.5
Cincinnati’s offense is in freefall with Jake Browning under center, logging one of the worst EPA totals in recent memory. Denver is inconsistent offensively, but their defense is holding steady enough to make the Bengals unattractive. Unless Joe Burrow shocks everyone with a return, bettors will lean Broncos, though 7.5 is a tricky number for favorites.
Line Movement and What It Means
One of the most important skills for NFL bettors is reading line movement. The NFL Week 4 odds are no exception.
- Early Movement: Usually driven by sharp bettors.
- Late Movement: Often reflects public money closer to kickoff.
- Reverse Line Movement: When the majority of bets are on one team, but the line moves the other way. This is often a sign sportsbooks respect sharp money on the other side.
For example, if 70% of the public bets are on the Cowboys -6.5 but the line drops to -5.5, it means sharps are backing the underdog heavily.
Totals and Weather in Week 4
Totals are where casual bettors often make mistakes. Weather, pace of play, and injuries all impact whether a game goes over or under.
- Wind and Rain: Strong winds of 15+ mph usually push totals down.
- Indoor Games: Domes create stable scoring environments, leading to higher overs.
- Pace of Play: Teams that run hurry-up offenses or pass heavily often push totals higher.
In NFL Week 4 odds, totals will be especially important as weather starts to become a bigger factor in outdoor stadiums.
Tips for Betting NFL Week 4 Odds
Here are some strategies to make the most of the Week 4 slate:
- Shop Around for the Best Line: Different sportsbooks may have a half-point difference that decides your bet.
- Consider Teasers: Moving lines by 6 points can create value, especially around key numbers like 3 and 7.
- Don’t Overreact to Week 3: A big win or ugly loss can skew perception, but three weeks is still a small sample size.
- Check Injury Reports Daily: Odds shift quickly once news breaks, especially for quarterbacks.
- Follow Moneyline Trends: Underdogs often cash early in the season when oddsmakers haven’t fully adjusted.
The Bigger Picture: NFL Betting Market
The NFL Week 4 odds don’t exist in isolation; they are part of the multi-billion-dollar sports betting market. Each week, sportsbooks balance sharp money against public action, adjusting lines to mitigate risk. Understanding this process helps bettors recognize when odds represent value and when they’re simply bait for casual money.
By the time Week 4 kicks off, we’ll have enough data to separate true contenders from early-season pretenders. For bettors, this week is all about finding value before sportsbooks fully adjust. The NFL Week 4 odds provide insights not just into who might win, but into how the market values each team.
If you’re betting spreads, totals, or moneylines, remember that sharp money usually moves early, public money comes late, and injuries always matter. Staying on top of line movement, key player news, and historical betting trends will help you make sharper picks this week and beyond.
