As I am writing this, Tradesports.com has the contract for New England minus 6.5 points selling at about 53.5 -54.5 cents. I gather this means that, on average, the market of betters thinks there is a slightly better-than-even chance that New England will defeat Philadelphia in the Superbowl by 7 or more points. So far, Skip has said he doesn't think the Patriots will cover the spread. Brian has said he thinks the Patriots will win. And Phil has posted that he, too, thinks the Patriots will win. Unfortunately, neither Brian nor Phil has gone out on a limb to state unequivocally that they expect the Patriots to cover the spread.
I've read all the discussions so far, here and elsewhere. I have to pick the Eagles plus the 6.5 or 7 points. My main reason? The odds makers in Vegas initially set the spread at 6 points, but the betting drove it up, yet I see no reason for it to have gone up. Further, all the talk about how impressive the Patriots have been seems to ignore how well the Eagles have done, too.
How confident am I? Despite my pick, I am not placing an order with Tradesports.