If you’ve ever had a big bet on the line and felt that creeping doubt settle in—should I cash out, double down, or play it safe?—you’re not alone. Every bettor, from casual weekend warriors to high-stakes professionals, faces this dilemma of hedging in sports betting.
Maybe you’ve got one leg left on a massive parlay, or your longshot Super Bowl future is coming true. The question becomes: Do you hedge your bet to lock in a profit, or ride it out for maximum payout?
Hedging in sports betting is both an art and a science. Done right, it can turn a risky situation into a guaranteed win. If done wrong, you might be leaving a significant amount of money on the table.
This guide breaks down when to hedge, how to do it, and the biggest mistakes to avoid. Whether you’re betting on the Super Bowl, March Madness, or just trying to make your first profitable hedge, you’ll leave here with a winning strategy.
Understanding Hedging in Sports Betting
At its core, hedging in sports betting is a financial strategy similar to risk management in investing. It involves placing an additional bet on an opposite or different outcome to minimize losses or secure profits.
Some bettors hedge to ensure a positive return, while others use it to cut potential losses if they believe their original bet is at risk. In both cases, hedging is about balancing risk and reward.
When to Hedge Your Bets: Key Situations
While hedging in sports betting is often beneficial, it is most useful in certain situations:
1. Futures Betting: Hedging a Big Payout
One of the most common times to hedge is when a bettor has placed a long-term futures bet that has a chance of paying out a significant sum.
Example: Hedging an NFL Futures Bet
- At the beginning of the season, you bet $100 on the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl at +5000 odds (50-to-1).
- If they win, you would collect $5,000.
- Now, the Lions have made it to the Super Bowl and are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, who are favored at -200 odds.
Hedging Strategy:
- You place a $2,000 bet on the Chiefs at -200 odds.
- If the Chiefs win, you profit $1,000 from your hedge bet (since $2,000 at -200 pays out $1,000).
- If the Lions win, you still walk away with $3,000 ($5,000 winnings minus the $2,000 hedge bet).
In this case, hedging locks in a profit, rather than risking the entire $100 on a single game outcome.
2. Parlay Betting: Locking in Profits
Parlays are high-risk, high-reward bets where multiple selections must win for the bet to cash. If a bettor reaches the final leg of a parlay, hedging allows them to guarantee some winnings instead of leaving it all to chance.
Example: A Five-Leg Parlay Hedge
- You bet $50 on a five-leg parlay with a potential $5,000 payout.
- The first four bets win, and you need the Chiefs to win on Monday Night Football for the full payout.
Hedging Strategy:
- You bet $2,500 on the Chiefs’ opponent (let’s say the Raiders) at +200 odds.
- If the Chiefs win, you still profit $2,500 from the parlay ($5,000 payout minus the $2,500 hedge).
- If the Raiders win, you profit $5,000 from your hedge bet ($2,500 wager at +200 odds).
This approach ensures guaranteed money instead of risking the parlay falling apart at the last moment.
3. Live Betting: Taking Advantage of Changing Odds
Live betting is one of the best opportunities for hedging in sports betting, as odds shift throughout a game.
Example: Hedging a Moneyline Bet Mid-Game
- You place $100 on the Celtics to beat the Heat at +150 odds before the game starts.
- At halftime, the Celtics lead, and their odds shift to -200 favorites.
Hedging Strategy:
- You place $100 on the Heat at +250 odds.
- If the Celtics win, you profit $50 (original bet wins, hedge bet loses).
- If the Heat come back and win, you profit $150 (hedge bet wins, original bet loses).
- Either way, you secure some winnings instead of risking a total loss.
Live betting hedges are effective because in-game odds fluctuate significantly, allowing bettors to take advantage of momentum shifts.
Popular Times of Year to Hedge Bets
There are specific times during the sports calendar when hedging in sports betting is at its peak. These moments offer prime opportunities for bettors to secure profits:
Super Bowl Betting
- Many bettors place futures bets on NFL teams at the start of the season.
- Once the Super Bowl matchup is set, hedging allows them to lock in winnings.
March Madness
- The NCAA tournament features huge upsets and wild swings in odds.
- Bettors who place futures bets on underdog teams often hedge when their teams make deep runs.
Start of the MLB or NBA Season
- Bettors who place early-season futures bets on MVP winners or champions can hedge later in the season.
Which Sportsbooks Are Seeing the Most Action in 2024?
As sports betting continues to grow, certain sportsbooks dominate the market. The most popular sportsbooks for hedging in sports betting include:
FanDuel – Known for its live betting options, making it ideal for in-game hedging.
DraftKings – Offers a cash-out feature, which is another form of hedging.
BetMGM – Provides boosted odds and risk-free bets, which can be used strategically for hedging.
Caesars Sportsbook – Popular among high-stakes bettors looking for big payout opportunities.
Each sportsbook has different rules and payout structures, so it is important to choose one that aligns with your betting strategy.
Unique Hedging Strategies: How Mattress Mack Uses Hedging
One of the most well-known examples of hedging in sports betting comes from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. The Houston-based furniture store owner places massive bets as a way to hedge against business promotions.
How It Works
- He offers customers refunds on furniture purchases if a local team wins a championship.
- To protect against losses, he places millions in bets on that team to win.
- If the team wins, the betting payouts cover the refund costs.
- If the team loses, he profits from furniture sales.
This is an advanced hedging method that shows how betting strategies can go beyond just sports gambling.
Downsides of Hedging in Sports Betting
While hedging in sports betting can be a useful tool, it is not always the right decision. Here are some reasons not to hedge:
- Reduced Profits – Hedging often means giving up a portion of your potential winnings.
- Extra Costs – Placing multiple bets can incur additional costs, including transaction fees.
- Complexity – Hedging requires careful calculation of odds and bet amounts to be effective.
For casual bettors, hedging can provide peace of mind, but for professional bettors, it can sometimes diminish expected value.
The Cost of Cashing Out Too Early: How Much Money Do Bettors Leave on the Table?
You’re on your couch, staring at your phone, heart racing. It’s been a brutal day of betting—missed free throws, last-second field goals, bad beats at every turn. But finally, something is going your way.
Four legs of your five-leg parlay have hit, and there’s just one game left. Your potential payout? $5,000. But now, your sportsbook is offering you a cash-out option for $2,000.
The question: Do you take the guaranteed money, or risk it all for the full payout?
This is the dilemma every bettor faces at some point, and millions of dollars are lost every year because people cash out too early. While it feels like playing it safe, cashing out often means leaving serious money on the table—money that, in many cases, would have been won if the bet was left untouched.
How Much Money Is Lost to Early Cash-Outs?
Sportsbooks love the cash-out feature, and for good reason—it’s designed to protect their profits, not yours. While exact numbers vary, experts estimate that bettors collectively forfeit millions of dollars every year by cashing out bets for lower amounts than they would have won.
Let’s break it down with a real example:
- You place a $50 bet on a four-leg parlay with a potential payout of $2,500.
- Three legs hit, and your sportsbook offers a cash-out of $1,200 before the final game.
- You cash out, securing a profit—but the final leg wins.
- That means you just lost out on an extra $1,300.
Now multiply that by millions of bettors making similar decisions across major sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars. The numbers add up fast, and the sportsbooks know it.
Why Do Bettors Cash Out Early?
- Fear of Losing Everything – It’s hard to turn down a guaranteed payout, especially when you’ve had a rough betting day.
- Emotional Betting – If a game starts off badly, bettors panic and take the cash out even when there’s plenty of time left.
- Lack of Confidence – Many bettors don’t trust their original pick when it comes down to the final leg.
- The Illusion of a Smart Decision – Sportsbooks frame cash-out offers as “locking in a win,” but in reality, they often cut into your expected profits.
Should You Hedge Your Bets?
Hedging in sports betting is a strategic way to lock in profits and reduce risk, but it is not always the best move. It is most effective when:
You have a high-value futures bet that is nearing payout.
You are deep into a parlay and want to secure winnings.
Live betting presents a favorable opportunity to adjust.
However, if hedging cuts too deeply into potential profits or is done out of fear, it may not be worth it. Successful bettors understand when to hedge and when to let bets ride.
For those serious about optimizing hedging strategies, using a hedging calculator can help determine the exact amount needed to secure a guaranteed profit.
